College admissions trends
By now, nearly all high school seniors who plan to attend college have chosen their school, paid a deposit, arranged for their first year courses, and talked with their new roommate who they hope will be as nice as he/she sounds on the phone.
Before the high school class of 2008 becomes deeply immersed in the admission process for the coming year, let's take a look at general trends in present-day college admissions.
Unfortunately for next year's seniors (and several classes that will follow), the number of high school graduates has never been larger. In 2008, there will be about 3.4 million graduates, and the number will remain at roughly that level for another five years or so. In addition, since the 1980's the percent of graduates going on to college has increased from 45% to 65%.
So obviously there is a large and growing "demand" to attend college. The problem (from the student's perspective) is that the "supply" - the number of openings for freshmen - has remained about the same. This combination makes for a tough competitive environment.
But this supply and demand relationship is not all that makes life difficult for the college applicant. There are about 2000 4-year colleges. 1500 of these are not considered to be selective since they accept more than 75% of their applicants. The admission process at these colleges primarily consists of whittling away students who are unqualified.
There are about 500 selective colleges, meaning that they have more students who are qualified than they can admit. Their task is to select the best (defined in many ways) out of this larger pool.
To further complicate matters, potential applicants do not sort themselves evenly among the 2000 colleges. Greater numbers want to shoot for the 500 selective colleges rather than the 1500 less selective ones.
As someone once said, "It's hard for kids to get into colleges because they only want to go to colleges that are hard to get into."
Unfortunately, this humorous quote has a great deal of truth to it.
For better or worse, high school students need to understand that this is the situation you will be dealing with when it comes time to make up your college list.
In the admission climate that exists today, the best advice is to start your college information gathering early and cast a wide net. Do not limit your choices to the so-called "top" schools. Also pay close attention to those institutions that are less competitive, but nevertheless offer a very good education. A well-balanced and realistic college list is of vital importance as the first step in your path to college.
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